Friday, January 15, 2010

If you don't have a generator....might be time to get one

From the mailbox: ADVISORY: Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us.

Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all said and done. But there's a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below).Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.

This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).

In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expected to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.

In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season's worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned.
(NASA - I am looking for the link)
El Nino is coming: “This event has the potential to approach or rival the January/February 1998 El Nino event in Central CA and the January 1995 time frame for Southern California”
Strong storms predicted to bring 10-20 feet of snow to the Sierra during the next two weeks
Are You Ready? - Emergency Planning and Checklists
◼ FYI Costco sells Emergency Food Kits
storm surfing

UPDATE: ◼ Big storms to set in Sunday

The real deal? Or Chicken Little? Better safe than sorry. Stock up.

8 comments:

Fred said...

Scary, when they put it like that. I hope they're hyping it a bit just to be on the safe side as I think they usually do. Among other things, I don't want to find out the earthquake caused my roof to leak.

Jennifer Savage said...

Thanks for all the links, Rose. I am buying a weather radio TODAY.

Rose said...

That's on my list, too.
Here's something else to consider:
Sengoku OR-77 HeatMate Omni-Radiant 10000-BTU Portable Kerosene Heater
10,000 BTU per hour output. Heats up to 380 sq. ft. Compact and lightweight. Great for camping or emergency use. Safety features such as automatic shuf-off and safety grills to protect against burns. Convenience features like easy-to-read fuel gauges and automatic ignition for fast, push-button starting, and quality construction. 1.2 gallon fuel capacity, burns 12 to 14 hours per filling. UL listed. Unit size: 15" round, 23" high.

kymk said...

Don't forget to fill thermos and bottles with water.

Rose said...

Just got a few of these in lieu of candles:
http://www.acehardware.com/product/index.jsp?productId=2263940&kw=oil+lamp&origkw=oil+lamp&searchId=44931222893 at Ace... will last longer and should be brighter and easier to carry than candles and less risky than my otehr oil lanterns... cage encloses the glass so less likely to break in a quake, the oil reservoir isn't glass, and it's easy to hang. I'll let you know tonight if the light is any good.

Rose said...

Thanks, Kym. Good to see you.

Anonymous said...

Hopefully it won't be as bad as we keep hearing. Got the generator out and started it yesterday. Have to put batteries in weather radio though. BBQ has propane so can have coffee and be able to heat food and cook things in freezer. Emergency lights stay plugged in year round so will be able to have some light. Flashlights all work. Just hope no trees fall with the wind.

True - better safe than sorry.

Howlsatmoon said...

I just finished installing a "back up" solar array at the Lair...for about $3k, it gives me 20 amps worth of Lighting all day and through the night if needs be....that's like 24 100watt lamps.

Not a survivalist...well mostly not, but I do like light when necessary......